Approaching an Inflection Point

The Multifamily Investment Market is Approaching an Inflection Point

The multifamily real estate market is at an inflection point, shaped by stabilizing occupancy rates, shifting affordability, and changing homeownership trends. These developments are creating new opportunities for investors who can adapt to the evolving landscape. With strong rental demand and a slowdown in new construction, the market is showing signs of balance, making it a promising time for strategic investment. Staying informed on these changes will be key to navigating this pivotal moment and capitalizing on what’s ahead.

Strong Demand for Rentals

The demand for rental units is strong. Over the past year, nearly 390,000 market-rate apartments were leased, one of the highest absorption rates on record. While supply still slightly exceeds demand, the gap is closing. More than half a million new market-rate units were delivered recently, the highest since 1986, with another 600,000 units expected next year. Strong absorption rates indicate that the market can attract renters, even with economic uncertainties.

The dynamics of the rental market are also shifting due to demographic trends. Millennials and Gen Z are prioritizing flexibility and experiences over traditional homeownership. Many young professionals prefer renting in vibrant neighborhoods that offer amenities and access to public transportation. This trend is further fueled by the rise of remote work, which allows individuals to live in areas that suit their lifestyle rather than being tied to specific job locations.

Stabilizing Occupancy Rates

Occupancy rates have stabilized, staying at or above 94.1% for the last seven months. This is impressive, especially with the current peak in apartment supply. Although rapid rent growth isn’t expected for the rest of 2024, rental rates are stabilizing, having risen an average of 0.2% over the past year despite the influx of new units.

Drop in Construction Starts

New multifamily housing starts have dropped about 40% year-over-year, with the second quarter of 2024 seeing the lowest number since early 2011. This slowdown, combined with strong absorption rates, suggests that the oversupply is gradually decreasing, leading to a more competitive market. Since construction typically takes 24 to 30 months, we can expect limited new supply in the near future, which should help support continued rent growth.

As the market tightens, developers may shift their focus to revitalizing older properties or enhancing existing ones, further improving the quality and desirability of rental options available to tenants. This shift could create a healthier balance between supply and demand, fostering long-term stability in the multifamily sector.

The Rent vs. Ownership Gap

Affordability is improving as the median rent-to-income ratio for market-rate apartments has decreased for 15 consecutive months. This trend indicates that rents are becoming more manageable compared to incomes. With wages rising faster than inflation, the outlook for affordability is positive, supporting ongoing demand for rental housing.

Traditionally, homeownership has been viewed as a marker of financial success. However, with average home prices soaring nearly 50% since February 2020 and mortgage rates more than doubling, owning a home has become increasingly out of reach for many. As a result, the financial advantages of renting—such as lower monthly payments and included amenities—are attracting more individuals.

Renting offers significant flexibility, particularly for younger generations who value mobility. Many renters appreciate the ease of relocating for job opportunities or lifestyle changes without the complications of selling a property. This adaptability is especially important in today’s dynamic job market, where remote and hybrid work arrangements are on the rise. Renters can explore various neighborhoods and adjust their living situations to meet changing needs, whether that involves downsizing, upsizing, or moving closer to work or family.

The gap between renting and owning is expected to persist for the foreseeable future. Despite projected strong rent growth, rising taxes, property insurance, and high home prices will keep renting as a viable and often more attractive option for many individuals and families, solidifying the trend toward a more rental-focused housing market.

Investor Sentiment and Market Trends

Signs of renewed activity in multifamily sales are evident, with competitive bidding and rising prices reflecting a resurgence in investor enthusiasm. According to CBRE’s quarterly report, the U.S. multifamily market has likely turned a corner and reached stabilization, buoyed by improving fundamentals. “Sentiment has improved significantly, as many investors believe that values have bottomed,” said Kelli Carhart, executive managing director of Multifamily Capital Markets at CBRE. “We expect transaction volume will remain healthy throughout the balance of the year.

Brokers are observing increased listing activity and a return to competitive bidding, as buyers actively seek to secure deals. Additionally, the overall multifamily vacancy rate remained unchanged at 5.5% in the second quarter of 2024, having increased quarter-on-quarter for the past two years. This rate is expected to begin falling toward its long-run average of 5% in the coming quarters.

Stability in Key Metrics

Key performance indicators for prime multifamily assets have remained stable for the second consecutive quarter. This stability comes as expectations grow for potential interest rate cuts, which could improve investment returns in the sector.

The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, as the U.S. economy demonstrates resilience despite ongoing worries about growth and interest rates. After a slowdown in the first quarter, GDP growth bounced back to 3.0% in the second quarter, suggesting that inflation may be under control without triggering a recession.

Wilkinson’s View

Overall, the multifamily market is showing positive signs of stability, with strengthening occupancy rates, high renter demand, declining construction starts, improving affordability, and renewed investor confidence. These factors suggest the multifamily investment landscape may be on the verge of significant change. The team at Wilkinson is poised to capitalize on these trends, leveraging our expertise to identify and secure valuable opportunities in a shifting market. Our commitment to quality assets and strategic investment positions us as key players in navigating the evolving landscape.

As the economy adjusts to these changes, the multifamily sector stands to benefit significantly. The combination of increased demand for rental units and the potential for favorable monetary policies creates an attractive environment for both investors and renters alike.

At Wilkinson, our focus on innovative strategies and community-building initiatives will further enhance the appeal of our properties, fostering long-term growth and stability in the communities we invest in. With a clear vision and strong operational capabilities, we are well-positioned to thrive in this promising new chapter for multifamily real estate.

About the Author

David McKinney is the Managing Director and EVP of Investor Relations at Wilkinson, where he leads the strategic development of real estate funds. With over $2.5 billion in transactions completed during his tenure, David leverages his strategic insights and emotional intelligence to enhance client and team experiences. Beyond his professional endeavors, he is a husband and father, enjoying outdoor adventures in lakes and mountains near his home in Washington State, and he is actively involved in his community as a Rotarian, committee chair advisory board member reflecting his commitment to leadership and service.

*This does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Securities may be sold only to accredited investors and only through an offering memorandum. No person has been authorized to give any information or to make any representations in connection with any offering of Wilkinson Corporation’s securities other than information and representations contained in the offering memorandum. All prospective investors should read the offering memorandum and consult with their own legal, accounting, tax, and financial advisors before deciding to invest. This email contains forward-looking statements that relate to future events, future developments, or forecasts of a property’s or fund’s future financial performance. All investments involve risks and uncertainties and these statements are only predictions based upon assumptions. Actual events or results may differ materially. There is no guaranty that any fund’s objectives, future results, levels of activity, performance, or plans will be achieved.​

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